Effect of Population Density and Economic Indicators on COVID-19 Death Rates in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States

Javier Cifuentes-Faura


Objective: The countries of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC, by its initials in Spanish) have been some of the most affected by COVID-19. This paper analyzes whether, in the 33 CELAC countries, population density, together with other economic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) values or the Human Development Index (HDI), were significantly associated with the coronavirus mortality rate. Methods: A correlation analysis and an ordinary least squares regression model were used to analyze the effects of different variables on the COVID-19 mortality rate. Results: The results showed that countries with higher numbers of inhabitants per square kilometer had lower death rates. Gross domestic product was not associated with the number of deaths, while the HDI had a positive impact on that number. Conclusion: Countries with high population density are not more vulnerable to COVID-19, as population density allows for economic development and better-designed institutions.


Covid-19; death rate; population density; GDP; HDI.

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